I’m Ray Mercer and I’ll debunk the “winning system hype” you’ve believed for years.
Ray Mercer
“Back both teams to score, that’s where the value is.”
“Forget the Premier League, the Championship’s where the money’s made.”
Anyone who tells you there’s one bet type that’s an edge is lying or stupid.
Pick a market, marry it, bet it week in and week out, and the winnings will follow you home.
It’s rubbish.
And I get why you want it to be true.
You want one easy answer.
“I just bet the overs” and betting’s solved, simple as that, off you go.
BTTS, overs, a team to win, they’re all the same thing underneath.
They’re only worth backing when the price is wrong and you can read it.
And the wrong price never sits in the same market two weeks running.
So if someone’s had you believing “this league and this market are the hidden gems”…
…they’ve done you up like a kipper.
Someone sold you a market, when what you needed was teaching how to read a match.
I spent years doing exactly the same.
Then I stopped, and the bank finally started moving the right way.
Let me show you how to simplify your betting and exploit ALL markets.
Picture a time you backed both teams to score on a Saturday, and it landed.
Then it landed again.
So now BTTS is your goldmine.
You’d have your house on it.
But it was never the market that won you that money.
It was good reads that happened to land there.
It feels like a consistent pattern but it isn’t sustainable.
Think of some lad smashing one in from thirty yards.
Top corner, keeper rooted, the lot.
A proper screamer.
And you decide he must be the best finisher in the country.
He’s not.
He had one good swing of his boot.
We saw Vincent Kompany score a world-class screamer to win City a title.
But he’s still a crap finisher… you don’t back him to score again next week.
Every punter alive does it.
It’s just what a couple of winners does to your head.
Do you think bookies only price the Premier League well and then the Championship is just an afterthought?
They’d be bankrupt by the January transfer window if that was the case.
They get plenty wrong.
Course they do.
But not the same market every single Saturday while you help yourself.
So here’s the question that actually matters.
If the value won’t sit still, how do you keep finding it, week after week, wherever it’s hiding?
Took me years to crack that one.
And it’s the thing nobody flogging you a single market will ever tell you.
Because the honest answer puts them out of business.
I’m Mercer.
I’ve been betting football the best part of 16 years, and losing at it for a good chunk of those before it clicked.
No algorithm.
No system I bought off someone else.
Just a bloke who got good at spotting a wrong price after years of getting it wrong himself.
I’m blunt, I’m not one for hype, and I don’t do fairy tales.
What I do is read a game against its price.
And I’ve got the record to show it works.
Let me show you how.
Right, the bit you actually came for.
How do I know where the value’s hiding when it won’t sit still?
I’ll let you in on it, because the blokes selling you one market never will.
Their whole living depends on you not knowing this.
I look at four things in a match. That’s it. Four.
Not what the bookie says. My own true price, once I’ve weighed the form, the team news, who’s playing and who’s rested.
Most weeks my number and theirs are close.
Nothing there.
I leave it.
The crowd piles on the big names every week, the four-nil merchants, the nailed-on favourite.
When everyone shoves one way, the price the other way gets too big.
That’s where I want to be.
A knock that never dented the odds.
A manager forced to rotate for a knockout game in Europe.
The price never adjusts.
That gap is money.
Bookies sweat over the big markets.
The further off you go, like a corners line in a quiet league, the lazier the price gets.
That’s where they leave the door open.
When those four line up on the same wrong price, that’s the read.
That’s when I tell you to get on.
Now I know how that sounds to some of you.
“So you’re just winging it and calling it a skill.” Not quite.
Doing this for years and keeping a record of every single call for the last 7 years isn’t winging it.
A step-by-step system is just a copy-and-paste process you could give to a robot.
I have a process, just not a step-by-step robotic system.
You need more finesse as a punter than copying 5 magic steps for every bet.
I’m not one of these claiming I have a robotic perfect magic trick that broke the market.
So when there’s nothing in the prices that screams value, I don’t just force it because my “system” dictates.
That’s not a proper read.
That’s filling a slot.
I send you the bet when the key four things that produce value line up.
Some weeks that’s a scoreline. Some weeks a team to win. Some weeks a corners line.
And obviously we have days where there is no valuable read. You can’t force betting.
One market didn’t carry that.
I wasn’t just deep-diving EFL games for 6 hours a day.
I looked everywhere, chalked off what had no value and then dug into the details on what might have.
When my parameters come into view, I dig into the lines, see how valuable it is, assign a stake based on the confidence and make my read.
That’s the difference.
No single market did the heavy lifting.
Every one of them paid.
Look for yourself.
Total · 6 months: +137.6pts from 273 tips
137.6pts profit total in 6 months across 8 markets in over a dozen leagues.
That’s the bit a one-market man can never put in front of you, and you can draw your own conclusion about why.
Harry Kane didn’t score the same goal 61 times last season.
PSG didn’t start the same 11 in every game to win the Champions League again.
You have to read betting game by game, just like elite players and managers do.
Worst month in the whole run still finished +12 points. That’s £600 to £50 stakes.
| Date | Bet | Stake | Odds | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2 | Wales v Ghana - Wales Win | 1 | 2.15 | LOSS | -1 |
| Jun 2 | Georgia v Romania - Draw | 1 | 3.4 | WIN | +2.4 |
| Jun 3 | Denmark v DR Congo - Congo +1 Hcap | 1 | 2.05 | WIN | +1.05 |
| Jun 7 | Escobar v Linqueño - BTTS Yes | 1 | 2.63 | LOSS | -1 |
| Jun 7 | Gold Coast Utd v Wolves - BTTS No | 1 | 3.0 | LOSS | -1 |
| Jun 10 | Portugal v Nigeria - Nigeria +1.5 Hcap | 1 | 2.05 | WIN | +1.05 |
| Jun 11 | Korea v Czechia - BTTS Yes | 1 | 1.95 | WIN | +0.95 |
| Jun 12 | USA v Paraguay - BTTS Yes | 1 | 2.1 | WIN | +1.1 |
| Jun 13 | Defensores Belgrano v Colón - BTTS Yes | 1.5 | 2.5 | LOSS | -1.5 |
| Jun 14 | Netherlands v Japan - BTTS Yes | 1.5 | 2.0 | WIN | +1.5 |
| Jun 14 | Alagoinhas AC v Alagoano - BTTS Yes | 1 | 4.8 | WIN | +3.8 |
| Jun 21 | Ferro Carril v Deportivo Morón - BTTS Yes | 1.5 | 2.5 | LOSS | -1.5 |
| Jun 22 | Fana v Sogndal II - BTTS No | 1.5 | 3.4 | LOSS | -1.5 |
| Jun 24 | Sunshine Coast v Brisbane City - BTTS Yes | 1 | 2.75 | WIN | +1.75 |
| Jun 24 | Switzerland v Canada - Over 2.5 | 1 | 2.0 | WIN | +1.0 |
| Jun 25 | Japan v Sweden - BTTS Yes | 1.5 | 1.74 | WIN | +1.11 |
| Jun 26 | France v Norway - BTTS Yes | 1.5 | 1.69 | WIN | +1.04 |
| Jun 27 | Colombia v Portugal - BTTS No | 1 | 1.67 | WIN | +0.67 |
| Jun 27 | England v Panama - England -2 Hcap | 1 | 1.77 | PUSH | +0 |
| Jun 28 | FAR Rabat v Union Touarga - BTTS Yes | 1 | 2.5 | WIN | +1.5 |
| Jun 29 | Brazil v Japan - Vini Jr 2+ SoT | 2 | 2.1 | WIN | +2.2 |
| Jul 1 | England v DR Congo - England 2-1 Correct Score | 0.5 | 8.0 | WIN | +3.5 |
| Jul 2 | Switzerland v Algeria - Win & BTTS No | 1 | 3.4 | WIN | +2.4 |
| Jul 2 | Spain v Austria - Win to Nil | 1.5 | 2.0 | WIN | +1.5 |
| Jul 3 | Egypt v Australia - Egypt to Qualify | 3 | 1.74 | WIN | +2.22 |
| Jul 3 | Argentina v Cape Verde - Cabral Booked | 1 | 4.0 | LOSS | -1 |
| Jul 3 | Colombia v Ghana - Under 8.5 Corners | 1 | 1.9 | WIN | +0.9 |
| Jul 5 | England v Mexico - Win 2-1 | 0.5 | 11.0 | LOSS | -0.5 |
| Jul 5 | England v Mexico - To Win | 2 | 2.4 | WIN | +2.8 |
Totals: Wins +34.44pts · Losses −9.00pts · Push +0pts
Brazil vs Japan
When looking at the prices, Brazil were massively over-valued.
This happens because of one of the 4 pillars of a good read. Two. Where the mug money’s gone.
Analysts all rate Japan, but the casual still presumed Brazil were going to comfortably qualify.
I was not convinced of their price at less than 1.68 at most bookies.
We looked into the goals market but no clear pattern had emerged in the knockout rounds.
So the read has to come from a player prop… and that’s where we find value.
Vini Jr had been deployed more centrally in a makeshift 442 by Ancelotti and finally been scoring and opening teams up regularly.
In a knockout game, to be given over evens on him having 2 shots on target was more than generous.
England vs DR Congo
England’s value in the back-to-win markets is a myth.
The goals markets again don’t show clear value either way.
We go to the player props and find even those markets have been squeezed.
But if you keep looking for the right read, we eventually find it.
England had won 8 games to nil coming into the tournament, but looked shaky defensively.
Congo were similar to Ghana in their setup but with better attacking talent.
Knowing they were going to create a couple of clear-cut chances on the break changes everything.
So we isolate the correct scores and look at England’s xG creation, and find 2 goals is by far the most likely for England.
Then factoring in Congo’s pace on the break and England’s lack of a settled back four, we opt for Congo pinching a goal on the break.
Place the bet and… BINGO.
That’s why you’ll love it when you join up.
We don’t force tips through a systems approach.
We dig until we find the gap in the market.
I’ll explain exactly what markets we’re avoiding and WHY.
This will help you understand how to find value over time.
Then I give you the correct reads and tips, and you just follow along.
I’ve got just over 40 members already on board, just from word of mouth on Telegram groups and Discord.
Here’s some of the feedback I’ve had so far.
This is the job now.
Has been a long time.
No boss, no shifts, no Sunday night dread.
I go through the fixtures of a morning, find the ones the bookies have got wrong, and I’m done by lunch.
It’s paid every bill in this house for years.
I don’t worry about a sudden expense or covering a holiday 6 months from now.
My time’s my own, and at my age that beats anything.
I lost for the first couple of years, mind.
I tried every system going.
Every one worked for a bit, then quietly stopped, same as they do for everyone.
I’ve created many systems, but applying my filters to all markets is the only way you can win long term.
Reading the match is the only thing that never stopped.
I’ve done the work. Now profit with me.
You’re About To Unlock The Daily Reads.
Every call I make, straight to your inbox.
Six to twelve a week. Whatever market the price is wrong on that day: correct scores, results, goals, corners, scorers, the lot.
You never chase a market.
The market comes to you.
The reasoning on every one.
What the bookies missed.
What the price should have been.
So you’re never copying blind.
Follow it a few weeks and you’ll start seeing it yourself.
Short and straight.
You’ll read the lot in the time it takes to make a brew.
The Read Files.
The full breakdown of how I found the wrong price.
The things I look at before a ball’s kicked.
The traps that catch most punters out.
The tells that a bookie’s got a game wrong.
The blokes selling you one market will never hand this over.
I’d sooner you learned it.
You’ll still want the calls.
For every wrong price I find, all week, every week. Handed to you the second I spot it.
I keep this capped at 100 members.
The reason’s simple, and it’s the same reason the value’s there in the first place.
A lot of what I call sits in small leagues and quiet markets.
Low-volume stuff the bookies don’t watch closely.
That’s exactly why the prices are soft.
If you’ve ever followed one of the big free tipsters, Andy or whoever, you’ll know the odds are a joke by the time you see them.
You get quoted one price, and by the time you’re logged into Betfair it’s dropped twenty percent.
There’s a hundred thousand people on those lists.
When they talk about their profit, they’re not talking to you.
They’re talking to the handful who got the bet on within sixty seconds of it landing.
Everyone else took the shorter price and made a fraction of it, if anything.
Then there’s the fact that if their tips were any good long term they’d charge you for them.
But they know you won’t rate the actual service and you’ll want a refund, so they just milk you for bookie subscription referrals instead.
That’s what too many people on a soft price does.
The weight of money eats the edge that made the bet worth having.
So I keep the numbers tight.
It’s the only way to protect the thing you’re actually paying for.
And I’ll tell you the other thing those lists do that I won’t.
They fire out bookie boosts and price-boost bets all day long, because they get a cut every time you sign up or stake.
That’s not tipping, that’s commission.
I don’t send you a bet because SkyBet pays me for it.
I send it because the price is wrong and there’s money in it.
Nothing else.
When the 100 fills, the door shuts. No waitlist.
Try it for a month.
If it’s not what I’ve said it is, you get your money back.
No forms, no back and forth.
I can say that because I know what the record does.
The ones who can’t say it are the ones with something to hide.
Tuesday night.
A call lands in your inbox.
A team to win, in some league you’ve never watched, at a price the bookies have got wrong.
Two lines telling you why.
You get it on in ninety seconds and go back to your evening.
It comes in.
Saturday, another one.
A scoreline this time.
Sunday, nothing.
Because there’s nothing worth having, and I’ll tell you so instead of handing you a loser to keep you busy.
That’s the week. No coupon full of hope. No chasing. No wondering which market’s let you down this time.
Just the right bet, whenever the price is wrong, dropped straight in your inbox.
You already know how the other way goes.
You’ve lived it for years.
Backing the right idea in the wrong place, watching the bank sit still.
This is the other way. Come and read the match with me.
Mercer.
Have a look at the record again and do the simple sum.
At the strike rate and average odds shown, the last six months returned roughly +137.6 points.
At £100 a point, that’s around £13,760. At £50 a point, half that.
Every month you stand on the outside watching is a month of that you didn’t take.
The bets still happened.
The prices were still wrong.
You just weren’t on them.
That’s the real cost. Not the price of joining. The price of not.